Frequently Asked Questions
The PrizePicks/Underdog Optimizers are designed to show you the best value plays day in and day out. It pulls all the possible player props while pulling all the different sportsbooks’ lines for that prop to give that prop a specific percent to hit using the fair odds % by taking out the books’ juice.
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Every 20 seconds.
Expected value. In betting, the expected value (EV) is the measure of what a bettor can expect to win or lose per bet placed on the same odds time and time again. Positive expected value (+EV) implies profit over time, while a negative value (-EV) implies a loss over time.
We calculate the fair odds % of each prop by taking out the hidden juice each sportsbook gives it. We utilize the Poisson distribution method to calculate the percent odds to hit on props that have discrepancies using historical player line data and how their % odds change whenever there’s a discrepancy. This final % is displayed in the “% odds to hit” column.”
For Example, If Tom Brady historically has a .5% change in fair odds % for every yard he throws, you will see a % odds to hit difference of 2.5% for a 5-yard difference in passing yards.
We make this simple. We have a drop-down box (+EV filter) on the top of our optimizer that shows you which plays are viable for what slip type.
Here is the math behind each slip and what individual prop hit rates are needed to make them +EV:
6-Man Flex: 54.13%+ (fair odds of -118)
5-Man Flex: 54.34%+ (fair odds of -119)
4-Man Power: 56.2%+ (fair odds of -128)
2-Man Power: 57.7%+ (fair odds of -137)
3-Man Power: 58.5%+ (fair odds of -141)
3-Man Power: 55% +(fair odds of -122)
5-Man Power: 55%+ (fair odds of -122)
4-Man Power: 56.2% (fair odds of -128)
2-Man Power: 57.7% (fair odds of -137)
Even props can be tricky, and we often preach to avoid them. However, there can be times when taking an even prop are very beneficial. With even props, if you see an even line (like 5) with a sportsbook line favoring an over of 5.5, you take the over. If you see an even line (like 5) with a sportsbook line favoring an under of 4.5, you take the under. If you see an even prop with a line (like 5) and it has a sportsbook line favoring an under of 5.5 or favoring an over of 4.5, those you can look to avoid.
*They still might be a good play, but the sportsbook line could also flip on you, causing it to then say to play the opposite*
As soon as you see value on the optimizer, you should be playing it. PrizePicks tends to adjust their props based on the sportsbook lines/money coming in on a specific prop and adjusts accordingly. However, you can take advantage of some soft lines when you see them on the optimizer, and “beat the bump”
It could be a few different reasons. The prop itself could “bump” either up or down, creating the percent to hit to shift. Also, the odds on the play could readjust due to several different factors like injuries, lineup change, weather, money, etc., causing the odds to shift
This really comes down to a few things….How many slips are you playing a day? How many slips are +EV overall? What types of slips are you entering?
All of these factors play into how that question is answered. Mastering +EV betting takes time and patience. Matt (DGF owner) had a losing month in 2022 but quickly recovered the following. The benchmark I personally give new +EV bettors is generally a couple months before seeing if this strategy really works.
The DGF column displays the market volume weighted average of all the line values across the board. If a book has more volume on a specific player prop, we put more of a weight on that specific book to determine how the market is pricing their props. This is the most accurate representation price the market is giving that specific player prop.